Predicting the NBA Western Conference Standings

 Yesterday I wrote about my predictions for the Eastern Conference. It was pretty hard, some bold takes in there that are sure to make me look foolish in April. Today I'm embarking on the even more difficult task of projecting the Western Conference. As always readers, if you have a problem with these lists please let me know in the comments! 

15. Portland Trailblazers 

This is the only "easy" one on this list. The Blazers were not a good team last season. They have since traded one of their best players in Malcom Brogdon. They did however swing for an intriguing young player Deni Avdija that should help them out this year. They aren't a completely hopeless program. Former first overall pick DeAndre Ayton could have a resurgent season, "Timelord" Robert Williams may be healthy, Scoot Henderson in year two could show more flashes of being a productive NBA player. There are some things to be excited about for sure. In a stacked west however, it is hard to see the Blazers getting out of the basement even if all of those things hit. With an elite draft class coming up, I'm sure the team will have no problem leaning into some growing pains. 

14. Los Angeles Lakers 

I'M SWINGING FOR THE FENCES WITH THIS ONE! I know, I know, a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis being the 14 seed!? It sounds preposterous, but hear me out. The Lakers got 71 games from LeBron and 76 games from AD last season and still managed to find themselves in the playin tournament. Their supporting cast is hardly improved unless rookie Daulton Knecht proves to be a major day 1 contributor. LeBron is turning 40 years old, he has been remarkable playing this well for this long for sure but betting on the health of a 40 year old to carry a team's offense is extremely risky. Anthony Davis is frequently injury prone and last season he turned in one of his healthiest seasons ever. To put it short, the Lakers had incredible injury luck last season and still were barely above .500. I am slotting them at 14 because that margin for error is very slim. 1 bad week and we're looking at a DeAngelo Russel led squad in a stacked western conference. 

13. Utah Jazz

I don't even think the Jazz are going to be that bad this season, this is just life in the west. The Jazz elected to extend Lauri Markkanen rather than trade him this offseason. He's good enough to provide a floor for how decent this team can be. Keyonte George should show some improvement in year two and they have a variety of other intriguing pieces that should contribute. The Jazz will struggle with off the dribble creation and with Danny Ainge at the helm for their front office, they could be looking to push for Cooper Flagg this off season as the year progresses.  

12. Houston Rockets

This list is getting hard. The Rockets are a good team, if they were in the East I bet they would finish top 6. As a long time Raptors fan, I have a soft spot for Fred VanVleet and the winning culture he brings to any organization. Jalen Green showed flashes of breaking out near the end of last season and he could take another step into the elite scorer he was projected as. Alperen Sengun is every nerdy basketball fan's favorite breakout candidate and is an absolute joy to watch. So why are they 12? Well the west is just insanely talented. The Rockets have a lot of good fun players and if everything hits they could finish much higher than this. As of today they do not have a true superstar level talent on the roster and that's holding me back from putting them any higher. I hope they make me look stupid later because I am a fan of this team in the west.

11. Golden State Warriors

This is another extremely difficult one. As we all saw in the Olympics, Steph Curry is still insanely talented. My argument here is pretty similar to my Lakers argument. Steph is going to be 36, he just played 74 games last season and the team barely made the playin tournament. Losing Klay Thompson and replacing him with a variety of role players should help their depth a bit but if you're being serious, the only thing that will make this team good is Steph playing every game. If Steph misses 20+ games the Warriors are at risk of sliding down even further than this. 

10. Phoenix Suns

I am low on the Suns. I actually like some of the stuff they did this off season. I am a big Tyus Jones fan and think he's exactly the type of player they needed. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are both superstars who can each drop 50 on any given night. Just something about the Suns doesn't sit right with me. Nurkic had great health last season which is rare for him. The rest of their depth is pretty putrid and their payroll is as such that they have very limited flexibility to improve the team as the season goes on. Things could go great for them and they could rise higher, but I think their all gas no brakes approach will come back to bite them this season.

9. LA Clippers 

I might have these guys too high. If you look at my rationale for the Lakers and the Warriors the Clippers fit those descriptions even better. Kawhi Leonard is a walking injury risk at this point. It's sad to say as he's one of the greatest players of his generation but it is hard to see him going through an entire season healthy. The Clippers also lost Paul George for nothing last season seeing him go to the 76ers. All that being said, I like their depth. James Harden, Terrence Mann, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Nic Batum, Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr should all be good contributors this year. If the Clippers get 60 regular season games out of Kawhi Leonard, I think they have enough to get into the playin tournament.  

8. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs finished second last in the West last season with a record of 22-60. Predicting them to finish this high up in the standings is 100% supported by my overwhelming belief in Victor Wembanyama. Wemby has the potential to be a top 10 player this season, he is just that good. I was at the game against the Raptors when he recorded a 10 block triple double and ever since then I have been a huge fan. The Spurs signed Chris Paul this offseason as well, and although he isn't the player he used to be, he's a massive upgrade at the point guard position for a young Spurs team. I believe Wemby will make another leap backed by one of the greatest floor generals of all time helping stabilize the rest of a young core. These two factors alone should see the Spurs be a much improved team this season. 

7. Memphis Grizzlies 

The Grizzlies had the season from hell last year. Pretty much every core player on their roster got hurt at some point forcing the team to play as a shell of itself. Jaren Jackson Jr was tasked with taking far more responsibility on offense than he ever has had to in the past and the results were mixed, including a noticeable drop-off on the defensive end. Of course all of this is with Ja Morant missing practically all of the season with injuries and off court issues. The return of Ja should be enough to make this team good again but exactly how good? They will be relying heavily on rookie center Zach Edey, who as a Canadian basketball fan I do hope pans out, but realistically relying on rookies is a risky business. Their bench has slowly lost pieces over the last few seasons leaving them fairly thin, especially at the wing positions. I think Ja will be good enough to drag this team up the standings but a lot more will need to come together for this team to get out of the play-in tournament. 

6. Sacramento Kings

Maybe I'm just a biased DeMar DeRozan fan. The Kings had a pretty solid off-season adding DeMar DeRozan for what essentially was Harrison Barnes. This was probably the hardest team to rank I could see them finishing as low as 12 and as high as 3 without being shocked. What they got in DeRozan is yet another clutch scorer to go along side De'Aaron Fox. DeRozan is also an underrated playmaker making mixing and matching lineups with Fox, DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis an intriguing proposition. The Kings will however lack sorely in defense. Lineups with both DeRozan and Sabonis in them will struggle to contain the other team. I believe the Kings will be in a lot of high scoring clutch games where Fox and DeRozan can shine, that is a recipe for moderate regular season success. 

5. New Orleans Pelicans

I love what the Pelicans did this offseason, even if they haven't yet figured out the Brandon Ingram situation. The Pels acquired DeJounte Murray from the Hawks, a player who I felt was the Hawks best guard. The Atlanta backcourt pairing had too many overlapping skillsets to allow Murray to thrive, in New Orleans he gets to be a primary playmaker, a role that fits him much better. Herb Jones has turned himself into one of the best 3 and D players in the world, CJ McCollum can slot into a role propping up the bench which he is much more suited to do at this stage of his career and Trey Murphy III should be primed for a full season, something the team lacked last year. Everything in NOLA comes back to Zion Williamson though who has never had a healthy season. Zion is a talent that I simply cannot quit, if he puts it together finally this season then the 5th seed may be the floor for this team. 

4. Denver Nuggets 

This would be a very disappointing season for the Nuggets and 3x MVP Nikola Jokic. I still think it's in the stars this year. The Nuggets lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this off-season replacing him with Russel Westbrook. I think the downgrade here can't be overstated. Jamal Murray may be coming off an injury but his performances in both the playoffs and at the Olympics have to be making Nuggets fans nervous. Some young players on the Nuggets may take steps this season and help make this argument look stupid, but I think the Nuggets are destined to take a bit of a step back this year. Still, Jokic is the best player in the world and I believe that's enough to at least be the 4th seed. 

3. Dallas Mavericks

I kind of wanted to be lower on Dallas than I ended up being. They just made the finals I know, and they added sharpshooter Klay Thompson in the offseason. But something about the Mavs feels wrong. That being said, they have two elite scorers and playmakers in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving that should supply all the offense the team needs. Klay Thompson appears ready to start his next chapter and being able to space the floor for two guys of Irving and Doncic' caliber is a pretty sweet gig. They also are coming off the confidence boost of a finals appearance. Despite losing Derrick Jones Jr, the Mavs added Naji Marshall who should fill that role admirably. I am not a fan of this team, as you can tell by my lack of passion ranking them this high, but I would be stupid to think they won't be good this season and so I have them as the 3 seed. 

2. Minnesota Timberwolves

I really really want to like this team and Anthony Edwards. I think I have a problem with when every single person is a fan of something, my brain immediately tells me to dislike that thing. That's what Anthony Edwards has become. Ant can't breathe without fans thinking it is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The man is getting MJ comparisons when he hasn't averaged more than 25ppg his career yet, I find it insane. Anyway, they're a good team damnit. Their defense was elite last season, Rudy Gobert in the paint with Ant and Jaden McDaniels chasing around perimeter players is a recipe for another top 3 defense this year. If Ant can take the step forward that every single person in the universe seems to think is a foregone conclusion, then the sky is the limit for this team. They may be the most complete team in the West if it weren't for my projected #1 seed. 

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are here! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Hamilton native, finished second in MVP voting last year and it was well deserved. You will have a hard time finding a player more consistent than Shai who had more 30 point games last season than Kevin Durant's MVP year. Along side Shai is a supporting cast that might be good enough to get to this peak even without him. Chet Holmgren would have ran away with rookie of the year last season if it weren't for generational alien Victor Wembanyama. Jalen Williams has shown electric isolation scoring ability and has turned himself into one of the best defenders in the league. Last season the Thunder's biggest issues were Josh Giddey being left unguarded on the perimeter and a lack of size. They have addressed both of these holes splendidly adding Alex Caruso, the perfect 3 and D guard and big man Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder were already the 1 seed last year and they just got even better. If health remains, this is my pick for the NBA championship this season.