Bull and Bear Case for the Raptors Starting 5

 Anyone who knows me knows that I am beyond hyped for the Raptors season to start again. We're getting closer and closer to training camp and so I thought today would be a good day to dream big, then dream small on the 5 guys projected to start for the Raptors this season. With Bruce Brown's knee injury looking like it will keep him out until at least November, it would appear the starting 5 is set as: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. We'll carry this assumption throughout the post. All stats are in points/assist/rebounds format with shooting splits in FG%/3pt%/FT%

Immanuel Quickley 

Bull Case: 22/7/4 on 45/40/85

Quickley comes out of the gates with his jumper on fire! His chemistry with Scottie Barnes builds as the season goes on and the Raptors incorporate IQ moving off ball with Scottie orchestrating the offense, improving his shot quality and percentages from deep. IQ has to go through practices with Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead hounding him, improving his handle and decision making in game. Quickley's floater game returns, where he just shot 37% from 3-10 feet with the Raptors last season he brings this back up towards his career average of 43.5%. When Scottie sits, Quickley stays in to lead the offense gathering assists. The most important aspect is Quickley's chemistry with Jakob Poeltl in the pick and roll continues to flourish with Jak setting great screens to get Quickley good off the dribble attempts. IQ is mentioned and potentially the front runner for most improved player as the season winds down. 

Bear Case: 18/5/3 on 40/37/80

Quickley is inconsistent showing flashes of great play in some games, and flashes of unplayability in others. He's constantly hunted on defense forcing the Raptors to make decisions late in game on if it's worth it to have him out there. His jumper is streaky going on heaters for some weeks and slumps for others. The playmaking improvement that Quickley made last season regresses back to his bench role as he hunts his own shot more often than trying to get others involved. Quickley makes no improvement in his biggest weakness, getting to the rim and his floater game while fun to watch, is inefficient and robs the offense of its flow. It takes longer than anticipated to develop chemistry with Scottie Barnes and the offense begins to look a little bit more "your turn, my turn" with the two young ball handlers. IQ is considered a solid average PG in the league but not much more than that as the season ends. 

RJ Barrett 

Bull Case: 22/4/6 on 55/39/70

A keen eye will notice that these are pretty much RJ Barrett's exact stats with the Raptors in 32 games last season. RJ Barrett continues to flourish in the Raptors system. Being the Raptors best player at getting to the rim, Barrett continues to be a wrecking ball warping defenses and creating advantages every game. Barrett is used as a secondary playmaker and his decision making improves on his drives finding open shooters when the defense collapses. RJ limits his off the dribble shot attempts to emergency situations focusing on what he does best offensively. Off the ball, RJ makes smart cuts and hits a good percentage of his corner 3s keeping the defense honest from beyond the arc. RJ stays engaged on defense and while not a shut down defender, is a reliable option that teams can't pick on. Most importantly, RJ leads the team in DAWG per 36, always hustling and bringing energy to the young Raptors even when the team doesn't have it. 

Bear Case: 18/2/4 on 42/33/70

A keen eye will notice that these are pretty much RJ Barrett's exact stats with the Knicks in 26 games last season. RJ Barrett regresses back to the player people were expecting to receive in the Knicks trade. While he has some months of great play, he also has long slumps where his jump shot and decision making become questionable at best. Still the Raptors best player at getting to the rim, RJ makes poor decisions when he gets there turning the ball over and forcing his own looks more than kicking it out to open shooters. Defensively RJ is inconsistent and disengaged at times, frustrating fans. The Raptors consider trading RJ at the deadline to replenish the bench. 

Gradey Dick

Bull Case: 14/3/5 on 44/40/90

Gradey Dick comes out on fire as the shooter he was promised to be. Running around off ball Gradey continues to show his keen instincts for getting to the right spots. Gradey develops chemistry with Scottie, IQ and RJ who all find him for open looks as the defense collapses. Gradey's movement and shooting ability warps defenses who have to chase him around all game. Off the dribble, Gradey is smart pulling up when the opportunity is there. Gradey continues to improve his pump and go game, keeping defenses who overcommit to his shot honest and creating advantages for the Raptors offense. On defense, Gradey adds size to his frame which allows him to hold his own in these matchups more often. Gradey continues to have good hands on defense creating steals and disrupting passing lanes. Gradey's nose for the ball flourishes and he chips in for an offensive rebound per game along with helping out on the defensive glass. When Gradey's shot is not falling, he continues to demonstrate his basketball IQ contributing in other ways. Gradey shows this season that he's a winning role player that could fit in any rotation in the league. 

Bear Case: 8/2/2 on 39/35/80

Gradey's shot does not fall to start the season and frustration begins to rear it's ugly head. Gradey is hunted relentlessly on defense and with the shot not falling, the Raptors are forced to reduce his role and minutes for the good of the team. Gradey has some games where he lights it up from deep, but others where wide open looks just aren't falling for him. Although Gradey is getting to the right spots and making good reads on offense, his role is intended to be a lights out shooter around Scottie Barnes, something the fans begin to question. By the end of the season the Raptors begin trying other players in this spot and give Gradey more reps in the g-league to continue to develop. 

Scottie Barnes

Bull Case: 24/7/9 on 50/37/80

Scottie takes the next step from fringe all-star to superstar. A jack of all trades on both sides of the ball, Scottie attacks the rim with reckless abandon, shoots from deep at an above average clip and distributes to his teammates better than anyone on the team. Scottie's handle continues to improve and he now demonstrates moves to get by his defender on offense. His massive frame helps him bully smaller opponents at the rim and his soft touch allows him to finish in a variety of ways. The mid range becomes where Scottie thrives, he can pull up from anywhere and adds a couple of tricks to his bag to create space. When the 3 is there, Scottie has no problem taking them and making them forcing defenses to chase him off the line despite his ability in the paint. Scottie is the team's primary point guard and with improved spacing he finds shooters every game. Late in games, Scottie continues to show his clutch gene and he has multiple games where he "takes over" the team leading to Raptors victories. On defense, Scottie is one of the best weakside helpers in the league wracking up blocks and disrupting plays. On the ball Scottie is engaged and menacing forcing turnovers and tough looks with his length and strength. Scottie gets early MVP buzz and is the primary contributor to a winning season for the Raptors.

Bear Case: 19/6/8 on 45/30/70

Scotties jump shot completely abandons him. The early flashes last year when his 3 was falling prove to be an anomaly and teams strategize to ignore him beyond the arc. While Scottie can still get to the rim as well as anyone, he continues to play passively until late in games frustrating fans and making games closer than they could be. Although he's a solid playmaker, his handle fails to get as tight as it could be creating turnover issues and relegating him to more of a point forward role on offense. It becomes evident that Scottie isn't going to be a primary scoring option and the Raptors use him in more of a facilitator role for the overall offense. On defense Scottie is still a great help defender but struggles to stay engaged on that end with some lapses in key moments. Scottie plays smart and has some good even great games but doesn't take the superstar leap people expect from him instead becoming just an elite glue guy on a good team. 

Jakob Poeltl 

Bull Case: 13/3/9 on 65/0/60

Jakob plays his role perfectly, setting hard screens, rolling to the rim and finishing as consistently as any big in the league. Jak is money in the bank from inside 10 feet and finishes the season near the top of the league in FG%. The Raptors continues to use Jak as a bit of a playmaking hub and he creates advantages off dribble handoffs and on passes on the short roll. Although there are games where he doesn't close, he plays an integral role on the team and starts every game that he is healthy. On defense he's the anchor the team needs. The Raptors funnel players towards him and he demonstrates that he is still one of the better rim protectors the league has. Opposing bigs can't just come in and dominate Toronto as Jak holds his own in his positional matchups. Masai feels vindicated for trading a first round pick for Jakob as the season ends and he plays a key role on a playoff team. 

Bear Case: 10/2/8 on 60/0/50

Jakob's already slow foot speed regresses making him difficult to keep on the court. While he still has soft touch at the rim, the push shots that fell in years past rattle out more often making him a less efficient player overall. His free throw issues persist and the Raptors can't reasonably keep him on the floor in close games. As a playmaker, Jak is useful as a hub but his shortcomings limit his minutes and assists. Defensively Jak can't keep up with fast moving high shooting volume teams and he gets played off the floor in more matchups than not. Although he's the team's best rim protector, the Raptors look to other options to keep the offense flowing more as the season goes on. At the trade deadline, the Raptors take calls on the big man and potentially look to move him if the price is right.