We are coming in hot the day after Vlad's 14 year extension. Now that it is done and it looks like Vlad will be in Toronto until I am 40 (crazy), I'm going to do a total 180 and support our guy. Vlad isn't a perfect player, but as the broadcast pointed out during the game last night, he's only just entering his prime and that should give us a lot to be excited about. Today lets compare Vlad's first 6 MLB seasons to some other greats who peaked in their late 20s and early 30s.
Comp #1: Miguel Cabrera
This is where I admit that I got the idea for this post from the broadcast yesterday. During the game they talked about an interview with Max Scherzer where he compared Vlad Jr to his former teammate Miguel Cabrera. He went on to say that Miggy was great in his early career, but he kept improving as time went on even after winning awards. I think this is my favorite comp for Vladdy ever, another larger first baseman who came into the league young with every tool you'd want at the plate. You can see here they actually have pretty similar stats through their first 6 seasons with Vlad being a bit better in the field and Miggy being a bit better at the plate. We've seen already Vlad threaten a triple crown in his career, something later career Miggy did consistently and actually achieved in 2012. Both of these players hit for average and hit the ball hard early in their career, but struggled to get the ball up to hit home runs consistently. Hopefully for Vlad, like Miggy, the long ball prowess comes with more experience. Another intriguing element to Miguel Cabrera is he moved to 3rd base when the Tigers signed Prince Fielder, something people have talked about Vlad potentially doing for years. Thanks a lot Max Scherzer for giving me this comp, I enjoy this one. This might be the best case scenario outcome for Vlad's career and if he goes on to have even 80% of the career Miggy did, he'll be a hero in Toronto forever.
Comp #2: Freddie Freeman
Eerily similar stats for the first 6 seasons between these 2 first basemen, and another good example of why you bet on guys who show early on they have all the tools as a hitter. Like Vladdy, Freeman also came into the league at 20 and immediately showed he's a well rounded hitter. You can see from their nearly identical batting averages and on base percentages, both of these guys have good vision and discipline at the plate. Like Vladdy, early on Freddie showed some bursts of power, but didn't consistently have great power hitting seasons until later in his career. Freeman didn't start consistently making all star teams until he turned 28. Something that really surprised me, as a side note, in 2016 Freddie Freeman finished 6th in MVP voting but was not an All-Star, crazy! Anyway, Freeman had his best season of his career in 2023 at age 33 finishing 3rd in MVP voting in the NL and posting an OPS of .976. This is another guy who came in young, showed he had the tools but really fully broke out in his late 20s and early 30s , a path that isn't hard to imagine Vladdy following.
Comp #3: Carl Yastrzemski
Deep pull for those of you who are big fans of 1960s baseball. I was reminded of Carl Yastrzemski when looking at Miguel Cabrera because I remember before Miggy, Yas was the last guy to achieve the triple crown. Vlad and Carl play different positions, Yas was an outfielder, but at the plate they actually have fairly similar early careers. Like the other two comps, both showed a great ability to get on base and hit for contact while flashing some occasional power. Yas just like Freeman and Cabrera broke out for real in his late 20s winning the triple crown at age 27 and going on to have a tremendous and long career as a great hitter. I'm not going to pretend like I know what was going on in the MLB in the 60s and 70s, but again it's easy to dream on a career like this for Vlad. This is the third guy I've shown today who's come into the league young, had a really good start to his career, but broke out and became an ultra mega superstar in his late 20s and early 30s. Vlad certainly has all the tools at the plate that all 3 of these guys show too, it's up to him now to unlock that potential and take the next step.
And that's that! Vlad is our guy now, if I ever have children the first iteration of the Blue Jays they get to see will likely have Vladimir Guerrero Jr on it. While I didn't agree with the contract at first, here's 3 examples of why you simply pay to keep guys with talent like Vladdy. I'll leave it to you guys to go look up the rest of these 3 players' careers, they're awesome, and you know what? Vladdy's will be too. Go Jays!
Comments
Post a Comment