NBA: The Case Against Tanking

 I have been in many debates over the last few years about tanking as a strategy in the NBA. Especially as a Raptors fan, I seem to be alone in thinking that it would be better to just be "mid", to win 30-40 games and have a competitive fun season. Every time I bring this up I am met with a chorus of boos, people telling me that losing is the only way to secure a star in the draft to be good long term. I believe this is just false, and a crutch for fans to not have to emotionally invest in their team. There have been success stories in tanking, but below you'll see that the grand majority of NBA success hasn't come from tanking rather luck and being in the right position to capitalize. 

The Ultimate Success - Winning a Championship

We can go back through the last 15 NBA champions and see that tanking was not the blueprint for the grand majority of them: 

• 2024 Boston Celtics: Got Tatum and Brown as a result of the Nets tanking. Couldn't get over the hump for 5 years until finally swinging the right moves to build a champion
• 2023 Denver Nuggets: Got Jokic in the second round, contention would be impossible without him
• 2022 Golden State Warriors: Steph Curry was a 7th pick, Klay Thompson was an 11th pick and Draymond was picked in the second round. Hit on Curry in the mid lottery, a position a 30-40 win team can find themselves in
• 2021 Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis was a 15th pick, contention is impossible without him, right in the middle of the draft the definition of mid
• 2020 LA Lakers: stunk with all their young players acquired through the draft, traded them all for AD, got LeBron as a free agent. 
• 2019 Toronto Raptors: Hit their heads against the wall for 5 years until Kawhi came available and they were ready to swing a big trade to contend. 
• 2018 Golden State Warriors: See 2022 + adding KD in free agency
• 2017 Golden State Warriors: See 2018
• 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers: Only one I will listen to in a pro tanking discussion because it got them Kyrie and the asset to trade for Kevin Love. Still took LeBron returning in free agency to become condenders
• 2015 Golden State Warriors: See 2020
• 2014 San Antonio Spurs: Remained good for years, had 1 bad season that got them Tim Duncan first overall. Manu Ginobili was a second round pick and Tony Parker was picked 28th. 
• 2013 Miami Heat: Got LeBron and Chris Bosh in free agency
• 2012 Miami Heat: See 2013
• 2011 Dallas Mavericks: Dirk was the 9th pick in the 1998 draft, were decent for the majority of his career. 
• 2010 LA Lakers: Kobe was a 13th overall pick, right in the middle. 

You can see here that planning to be bad was not the blueprint for any of these champions over the last 15 years. They all got some luck in the draft and stayed ready to add pieces to the contender they lucked into. 

The Risk of the Perpetual Tank

For every Oklahoma City Thunder there is a Detroit Pistons. In fact, I would argue that teams like OKC are the exception and not the rule. Most of these tanking operations are not over in 1 or 2 seasons, it is typically a 5+ year ordeal. The Pistons are a great example of this, the last time they made the playoffs was 2019, since then they've won 20, 20, 23, 17 and 14 games. They figure to be at the bottom of the league again this season despite all the draft picks they were able to make in their many tanking seasons. If you check Ticketmaster, there are Pistons home opener tickets available for as little as $24, the price of a sandwich in Toronto. 

The tanks that have worked in creating a successful NBA team have come with special circumstances. The OKC thunder were able to trade Paul George for who became a superstar in Shai Gilgeous Alexander in addition to a haul of draft picks which accelerated their rebuild. The famous process that the 76ers went through lasted 4 years of being absolutely horrendous before building a team that can't get out of the second round. There isn't a team today that tanked and is now a sure fire championship contender without any special circumstances other than maybe the Timberwolves who managed to get Ant first overall after a tanking season. 

Who's Watching These Games?

I am a die hard fan. I am going to watch probably 70+ Raptors games every year until I physically cannot anymore regardless of the team's quality. I question if the fans calling for tanking are feeling the same way. While it would be nice to maybe get some more affordable Raptors tickets, the fan base will dwindle significantly until they're good again. Tanking just isn't fun. I can see the argument for if you're on pace to win 30 games at the trade deadline, sell some pieces and win 25 instead. But to go into the season with the mentality of wanting to lose as many games as possible is harmful to the fans and the culture you're trying to build. Being competitive is fun, we can celebrate with each other over the big wins and feel frustrated over the big losses, that's what sports is about. If you enter the season with a tanking mentality you're robbing yourself of all the joy you could be getting from the season. 

Raptors: try hard, win games, don't tank!!!