Can the Raptors Dig Out of This Hole?

 Alright, I am an eternal optimist about the Raptors. I understand a grand majority of the fanbase does not want the Raptors to climb out of this hole, preferring instead to lose as many games as possible with the hopes of landing a Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey in the draft. I dislike this mindset for multiple reasons, the first one being, we have no idea how good Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey actually are at an NBA level. The second is, we have no control over the outcome of the games or the draft lottery process, so why worry about that? If the Raptors lose a bunch and end up with one of those guys, I'll be one of their biggest fans like I am for every Raptor, if not I am sure Masai will find the right guy later in the draft like he's proven he can do time and time again. For me, I'd rather see the team win and be fun, otherwise what's the point of watching the games? Anyway, the Raptors have started off this season with a myriad of injuries to important players. They've had about 10 minutes of Immanuel Quickley so far this year, RJ Barrett missed the first 4 games, Scottie Barnes got hurt pretty much right as RJ got back and rotation players Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown each haven't played a minute yet. Given all of their injuries, it has been surprising that the Raptors have stayed competitive in pretty much every game they've played so far. Still, competitive is one thing, actually winning is another. The Raptors sit now at 2-7 to start the season, a big uphill battle is ahead of them if they want to fight back to .500. I wanted to take the time today to go over what needs to happen if they want to turn the season around. 

Guys Need to Get Back and Gel

As mentioned off the top, the Raptors have been hit hard with the injury bug this year. You will have a hard time finding any team in the league that can stay afloat missing their best player and starting point guard for a significant amount of time. The injuries have come with a small bright spot of giving the Raptors depth an extended look. Gradey Dick has been the biggest benefactor of the increased touches and he's used them to show his 3 level scoring game is much more advanced than we all thought coming into the year. With nobody else to run the offense, RJ Barrett has shown some chops of being a legit lead guard, demonstrating that his playmaking game has taken a leap. RJ's also shown fearlessness in taking big shots down the stretch of games, something he's needed to do as the primary option with guys out. Ochai Agbaji has been thrusted into the starting lineup for a lot of this season and has shown that he can be an effective, dare I say good, 3&D player in the NBA. Davion Mitchell has done a decent job as the starting point guard with IQ out, rarely making mistakes that hurt his team. Finally, with the injuries the bench units have become filled with rookies who have all shown that they can play in the league. All of Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo and Jamison Battle are guys who might not be in the rotation when fully healthy, but they have made the most of the opportunities given to them and I think will deserve another look even when guys come back. 

All of this is to say, the Raptors are deep, deeper than anyone expected coming into the year. When everyone is back, the Raptors are going to need to make some tough decisions on who gets cut from the rotation. We haven't been able to say that since pretty much the championship run. The downside with all these injuries is that in a development season, you'd love to see your core pieces get reps together. Scottie, IQ and RJ haven't been able to play much together at all in the short time they've had together. When guys get back, it will be important to build chemistry not just for this year, but going forward as a team. 

The Defense Needs to Improve

Through 9 games this year the Raptors are dead last in defensive rating. There's nowhere to go but up I guess? Coming into the year we all knew this wasn't going to be a great defensive team. Losing one of the only players on the roster with size in Scottie Barnes for a stretch certainly doesn't help, but still dead last is shameful. There are teams like the Wizards out there who aren't even playing serious basketball, and the Raptors are still dead last in defense. The Raptors have placed an added emphasis on pressuring the ball this year, they have quick defense first guards who are good at this in Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead. The effort does look improved from some of these guys, but it is still not leading to great results. From the eye test, the Raptors defense seems to fall off a cliff completely when Jakob Poeltl comes out of the game. The Raptors have 1 decent rim protector and that is Jak, when he's out it's a free pass to drive all game long. I will concede, some of the numbers are impacted by the Raptors tough schedule to start the year including 2 games against the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, 2 games against high powered Sacramento and a game against the Cavs who have played like the best team in basketball so far. Even so, the Raptors need to be better on that end if they want any hope of climbing out of this hole. 

The Team Needs a Crunch Time Identity 

The most frustrating part of the season so far has been that I feel like I've watched the same game over and over again. The Raptors play great basketball for 43 minutes, the ball is moving, different players are getting involved and making shots, the team looks great, then the last 5 minutes come. Part of this is the schedule, as mentioned the Raptors have had a gauntlet so far, playing a lot of teams with great iso scorers which really helps win games down the stretch. But the biggest part of this is the Raptors are a young team that still needs to learn how to win. It seems like when the game gets down to it, the Raptors tend to tense up, commit sloppy turnovers and abandon the offense that has worked all game in favor of trying to score in isolation. As good as RJ and Gradey have been, they are not amazing iso scorers that you can just toss the ball to and ask them to go get a bucket. A lot of this can improve when Scottie Barnes gets back as he's shown an ability to show up big in fourth quarters on offense and offers supreme versatility on defense as the Raptors try to close out games. Quickley will also be a huge boost as the Raptors are attempting to close games now with point guards who aren't reliable threats to shoot, eliminating an option most NBA teams have. Really though it will come down to getting more reps and building composure. A lot of the collapses has been just lapses in judgement, guys dribbling the ball off their foot or guys just missing open looks. As the Raptors play together more, I expect them to get better in these situations. 

Look I am not naive. This is what people want as a "perfect tank." Play hard, come close, lose the game. I do think though that the team is better than their record shows though and I want nothing more than for them to turn it around so I can watch the tank fans lose their minds. 2-7 start is not insurmountable, Scottie should be back after another couple weeks and IQ is looking like he might be back this weekend. If the Raptors are still losing at this clip halfway through the season, I will become a Cooper Flagg watcher, but until then win games Raptors!!!