Blue Jays Grades by Position Pt. 3

 We back! Just quickly before I dive back into baseball, Kyrie Irving suffered a pretty gnarly looking knee injury last night for the Mavericks, obviously not something you ever want to see. I don't want to make light of injuries, they do suck, but you have to think trading Luka Doncic at 25 years old had to have angered the basketball Gods in some way. I can't see any way that franchise isn't now cursed. Anyway, on to the final installment of my Blue Jays position grades, the pitching! This one is going to be the most fun because lets be honest, pitching is usually the biggest crapshoot in baseball. We'll know for sure what we have by like June, until then anything can happen. Regardless, lets take a stab at it!

Starting Pitching: A+

Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassit, Max Scherzer, Bowden Francis, Alek Manoah?

Screw it, I am being extra generous with this starting pitching staff, I actually think they'll be a major strength of the Jays. One of the big and super cool off-season additions for the Jays this year was future first ballot hall of famer Max Scherzer. Scherzer has had a legendary career including 3 Cy Young awards and 2 World Series titles. If his career ended today he'd go down as one of the best to ever do it, and now he's a Blue Jay. To be more realistic about it, Scherzer is 40 this season coming off a year where he pitched just 43 innings for the Rangers. He isn't the lights out elite pitcher that he was in his prime anymore even when he does play, but he's still super effective. With Gausman, Berrios, Bassit and maybe even Francis, Scherzer might be the 5th best pitcher on this staff. Though he's not an ace anymore, Scherzer as your 4th or 5th guy is awesome. A true competitive maniac who's seen what it takes to win at the highest level, I think this is a great addition and I plan on attending a few of his starts this season.   

Kevin Gausman got off to a rough start last season, as he's sometimes prone to. In the second half of the season however, Gausman was lights out and every bit of the ace the Jays thought they were getting. It's now been 4 straight seasons of very high level starting pitching for Gausman as he enters his age 34 season. Aging pitchers, especially ones who rely on the fastball and splitter as much as Gausman does, tend to fall off fairly quickly, but I still have confidence that Gausman will turn in another great season for the Jays at the top of their rotation. 

Jose Berrios is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, and a super fun pitcher to watch when he's on. Besides one rough year in 2022, he's been as reliable as anyone in the Jays rotation and is super effective at not walking guys. The absence of mistakes is sometimes the best quality a pitcher can have and Berrios can reliably provide that for sure. 

Chris Bassit is one of the more unique pitchers in the league and he can definitely be hot and cold. He throws a million different pitches, seriously look at his baseball savant page. Sometimes when he's got it working he looks like the best pitcher in baseball and single handedly wins the Jays games. Sometimes when he doesn't he gets into trouble with walks and innings can snowball on him. Still he's a good reliable option for the Jays and certainly overqualified as a 4th/5th starter. 

Bowden Francis burst onto the scene at the end of last season and pitched like legitimately one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. I only am talking about him so far down the list because we need to see it proven over a full season before we can crown him as an elite starter, but if he does anything like he did as a starter last year then the Jays have found a gem. As a starer in 13 games last year Bowden Francis had a WHIP of 0.75. WHIP is my favorite indicator of pitcher efficiency, it's hard to give up big innings if you're not allowing base runners, and Bowden Francis really doesn't allow base runners. Francis doesn't have elite fastball speed or an awesome breaking ball, but he has great command and forces you to beat him rather than playing into mistakes. He's an optimistic wild card heading into this season but could quickly prove to be one of if not the best starter the Jays have. 

I need to take a moment to talk about Alek Manoah as well, coming off an injury he should figure to be the Jays 6th starter unless he really wows in spring training. Kind of a sad story for someone who was looking like the future ace of the Jays rotation, Manoah has struggled mightily with command issues that have really let innings get away from him. There's going to be an injury or two to a pitcher in this rotation for sure, there always is in an MLB season, and Manoah will get a chance to show what he's got. I really hope we see him bounce back to at least become an average starter again, the team is more fun when Alek is good.

There are some concerns about the depth behind these 6 guys for sure, but the way I see it your 7th pitcher and beyond are wild cards on basically any team in the MLB. Unless one of the top 5 guys completely falls off a cliff, that's one of the best 5 man rotations in baseball. 

Bullpen: D

Jeff Hoffman, Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Brendon Little, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin, Ryan Burr, Easton Lucas, Ryan Yarbrough, Angel Bastardo, Josh Walker

This was one of the Jays biggest weaknesses last season and you can argue that it got even worse on paper this season. The thing with bullpens is, on paper doesn't mean anything. I've seen seasons where the Jays pen is expected to be terrible, then like 3 guys emerge out of nowhere and it becomes a strength of the team. I've seen years where the Jays got a bunch of established guys for the pen who all promptly found a way to stink. The bullpen in baseball is probably the biggest crapshoot in all of sports and I love it. I think it's because most players in a bullpen are guys who failed at their ultimate goal. Nobody dreams of coming into games in the 6th inning for 20 pitches, it's what you do when you're told you can't start. Because of that, a lot of these guys get late starts perfecting their craft in shorter stints which creates a lot of opportunity for breakouts. That being said, all we have right now is the Jays pen on paper and there's no way you can look at it positively for now. 

There's 3 guys fighting to be the lefty in the Jays bullpen, an asset every team seeks out for matchup purposes: Brendon Little, Easton Lucas and Josh Walker. Of the 3, Brendon Little is the only one who's been decent in his MLB chances pitching to a 3.74 ERA last season in 45 innings. The other two have been terrible in their chances so far. Going into a season without a reliable lefty out of the bullpen will be a problem for the Blue Jays and if they're in any position to compete I expect them to address it. 

Jeff Hoffman figures to be the Jays closer and if he's pitching anything like he did the last couple of seasons for the Phillies, he's a pretty good option for this high leverage spot. Hoffman recorded 10 saves with the Phillies last season and hasn't had a chance yet to be a full time closer. Some guys handle the role well and some guys really struggle with the added pressure, time will tell how Hoffman bodes. 

In between the Jays have a couple of solid options in Chad Green and Yimi Garcia who have each been reliable for the Jays in the past. The problem here is you're hoping for more reliability from 2 guys that are turning 34 this season, and if they don't provide it the Jays are utterly screwed. Erik Swanson has had great seasons in the past, last season was not one of them and he enters this year as a huge wild card. If he, Garcia and Green can all either bounce back or maintain their production, the Jays will actually have a solid 3 guys they could use in middle relief. 

Beyond this, the Jays bullpen is all question marks. Again, with a bullpen random things happen all the time. Generally the opening day bullpen looks far different from the one on game 162, so while I have them at a D for now, you really never know. 

And that's that! Overall this is a flawed Jays team for sure, but a team that looks better and more balanced on paper than it did last season. A breakout performance or two will really go a long way to turn this team from mid to contender, here's hoping it happens. Go Jays!