NBA Award Predictions

 This one is low hanging fruit I know. I happen to have a bit of time today so I thought I'd write the most basic article I could think of and just predict who will win each of the major awards in the NBA this season. I thought it'd also be funny to look back at my predictions from the start of the year to see just how far off base I was. With the season in it's last few weeks here, the winners are all pretty much set in stone barring some incredible comebacks, lets dive into who I think will win each award: 

MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 

Preseason Prediction: Luka Doncic (I also specified Luka on the Mavericks lol)

Those who know me know that my favorite player in the NBA currently is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Those who know me also know that I still think Jokic deserves the MVP over him. With that being said, it seems like the media narrative has shifted completely towards Shai and I don't think that's an incorrect sentiment. Shai is leading the league in scoring while playing on the #1 seed in the West. Historically, that has been a lock for winning MVP every year. Not only are Shai's numbers impressive, he's also been bringing it on defense every night leading the best defense in basketball in steals per game with 1.8. He's ruthlessly consistent, I had to double check box scores when I saw this, Shai has 43 games this season with 30 or more points. That means that even if the season were to end today, it's more likely that Shai has more than 30 points rather than less.  In almost any other season this would be a unanimous runaway MVP case, but this year Jokic is arguably putting up even better numbers. Jokic is currently averaging 29/13/10 on 66% true shooting while being tied for the #2 seed. He's said himself and most agree it's the best year of his career in which he's already won 3 MVPs. What's working against him is he's already won those 3 MVPs and Shai's team is 12.5 games better than Jokic'. I don't think it's wrong to give the award to Shai and I will be so happy to see a proud Canadian win the award, but Jokic deserves a shout out here as well. 

As for my preseason prediction, I'd be shocked if Luka ends his career without winning one of these, especially now that he's a Laker. Absolutely nobody could've predicted that Dallas would be stupid enough to trade a young superstar entering his prime and I find it hilarious that the storyline is still dominating the NBA season. This pick wasn't insane I feel fine standing by it, Luka was injured then traded. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Mobley 

Preseason Prediction: Victor Wembanyama 

What a strange one this will be this season! At the All-Star break, Wemby was the clear runaway for DPOY, then it was announced he had a blood clot in his shoulder and would miss the rest of the season, eliminating him from contention for the award. I think the real incredible stat this season is Wemby played just 46 games, and still will probably finish the year leading the league in total blocks. Wemby has 176 blocks this season, the next most is Walker Kessler with 127. If Wemby is healthy, this award is his until further notice he's a total 1 man defense unlike anything we've ever seen. Anyway, he's not eligible so that leaves a couple strong contenders. Some will say Jaren Jackson Jr. should be the DPOY, but given he's already won one I think it's time to give some love to a Cavalier this season. The Cavs are going to win nearly 70 games this year and a big reason for that is the defense from their big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Mobley is the modern architype for a big man, mobile enough to guard perimeter players, strong enough to hold his own in the post and long enough to be an elite help defender. The Cavs have the #8 defense in the league despite some questionable defenders in the backcourt largely due to Allen and Mobley cleaning things up in the back end. Jackson Jr has a good claim for this award as well offering basically everything Mobley does, but the Cavs defense is slightly better and their team is way better so I lean Mobley for this award. 

I talked already about my preseason pick. I honestly think if the 65 game limit was removed, Wemby might still get some DPOY votes. I can guarantee you that he will be my pick again next season and I am not ashamed about it. 

6th Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard

Preseason Prediction: CJ McCollum

LOL looking back at all my Pelicans takes from the preseason is pretty funny, what a disaster. CJ won't even be eligible for this award as he started too many games for the banged up Pelicans, this was my biggest swing and a miss for sure. There's a ton of good actual candidates for this award and settling on one wasn't easy. The Celtics likely don't figure to have anyone winning one of the major awards despite being one of the best teams in basketball this season. Pritchard is averaging 14.1 points off the bench on 64% true shooting and on almost any other team in the league he'd be the starting PG. Pritchard comes into games and just pisses you off. The undersized white dude on the Celtics wreaks havoc on defense and somehow has post moves to compliment his elite shooting. I can't tell you how many times Pritchard has destroyed the Raptors, he's just so crafty and can now pull up from anywhere with confidence. That being said, he's not a runaway with this one. Ty Jerome in Cleveland deserves a shout out for what he's done this season. I said before and I'll say again, I don't think I've ever seen Ty Jerome miss a shot. Jerome came out of nowhere to have a near 50/40/90 season for the 1 seed Cavs and he definitely has a claim at best bench guard in the league. The mark of a true 6th man, whenever Mitchell or Garland miss a game, Jerome steps in and doesn't let the Cavs miss a beat. His teammate De'Andre Hunter deserves a shout out here too and was likely the favorite before his trade to the Cavs this season. Hunter's role has been reduced slightly and his counting stats have come down since the trade, but his impact has increased and he'd be a well deserving winner of this award as well. Ultimately, I've rewarded the Cavs and Thunder, I wanted to reward the Celtics as well despite how gross it makes me feel. Pritchard is totally deserving. 

As for my preseason pick, yikes. This isn't the last Pelican I'm going to be super incredibly wrong about in this article so stay tuned for that! Never getting hyped about that cursed franchise ever again.

Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels

Preseason Prediction: Josh Giddey

This one is always the hardest to predict preseason because to be the most improved player you kind of have to be a guy that nobody was thinking about going into the season. Dyson Daniels is your classic guy getting an increased role on a new team and really showing what he can do with it. He leads the league in steals at 3 per game and because of that he's got a real shot at DPOY as well, something nobody expected from him coming into the year. His PPG improved from 5.8 to 14.1, assists from 2.7 to 4.3, rebounds from 3.9 to 5.6 and steals from 1.4 to 3.0. To me, that's a lot of improvement! There's been talks about Cade Cunningham taking this award and while I acknowledge that he has improved, I am against a first overall pick winning this award, it's against the spirit of it all. Cade was supposed to become a star, that's why he was drafted first in a stacked draft, people thought this would happen. If he wins it, it won't be surprising but it will be annoying. Another shout out goes to Norman Powell who won't hit the games cutoff but would be THE guy for this award if he did. At age 31 Norm increased his PPG from 13.9 to 23.2, a crazy jump that nobody expected. Always cool to see a Raptors legend balling out! Anyway, Dyson deserves to be honored somehow for this really cool season he's put together out of nowhere and I think most improved is the place to do it. 

My preseason pick was off base, but you show me your most improved pick! Nobody ever gets this one right and if they do they're lying, it's a total crapshoot. Giddey has been OK with the Bulls but he didn't elevate his game in an increased role like I thought he would. Similar to OKC, Giddey is stuck in a place with a bunch of guards which doesn't necessarily highlight his strengths since he needs to be on the ball to be effective. I stand by my rationale, but this one definitely isn't coming true. 

Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle 

Preseason Prediction: Zach Edey

What a lackluster rookie of the year class this season! Castle is having a fine year by rookie standards averaging 14/4/3 on 52% true shooting. Generally, if you get that from your first round pick, you're pretty happy with the season he's put together, however that usually doesn't win rookie of the year in a normal season. That being said, the runaway favorite early in the season was Jared McCain who was putting up 15 points per game on 59% true shooting before going down for the year with a knee injury. Once McCain went down, all bets were off. First overall pick Zachary Risacher had a slow start to the season that is likely going to be hard to overcome. Zach Edey has been pretty good for the Grizzlies but only plays 20 min per game and isn't asked to do much outside of regular big man stuff. That kind of leaves Castle who's been a bit of a jack of all trades for the Spurs and looks like a nice piece going forward. 

I still think my preseason pick is good and Zach has a shot at winning this. In the games Edey played against the Raptors, he was amazing, looked mobile enough to hang with NBA pick and roles while being just massive on both ends of the floor. He has great touch and is pretty much an automatic bucket if he gets the ball deep in the post. Memphis is just a super deep team that doesn't need to play the rook a ton of minutes to succeed. I am really excited about what Zach is going to bring to the Canadian basketball program that is starving for a big. He looks every bit the part of a perfect FIBA big man and I am absolutely hyped to see how the rest of his career goes. 

Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson (Cavaliers)

Preseason Prediction: Willie Green (Pelicans)

Holy I was high on the Pelicans going into the season, never again. To me I can't see how you can give this award to anyone other than Kenny Atkinson this year. Coach of the year is usually an award for which team outperformed the most. Kenny was hired at the start of this season taking over for JB Bickerstaff. Last season the Cavs were 48-34, a solid record to get them to the 4 seed. This season the Cavs are 56-12 and have had multiple 15 game winning streaks. I am not going to pretend like I understand the small changes a coach made to a team I barely watch, but just looking at the record improvement alone on a team running away with the 1 seed should get Kenny the award. Quick shout out needs to be made to the guy Kenny replaced, JB Bickerstaff who's doing a phenomenal job in his role in Detroit this season as well. The Pistons were bottom feeders for years and now are finally looking like they're going to break through into the playoffs, a feat nobody expected. Ultimately, I think the Cavs securing the 1 seed despite not really changing much about their team in the off season should put Kenny in the drivers seat for this award, and it's well deserved. 

Yeah my preseason pick was not just wrong, it was horrifically and brutally wrong. Not only is Willie not going to win this award for sure, he's also likely to be fired at the end of what can only be described as a disaster in New Orleans. The NBA has a lot of disasters this year that have totally overshadowed the Pelicans. The Mavericks blew their team up for no reason, the 76ers are back to being a laughing stock and the Suns have publicly quit playing serious basketball. None of this should make you forget how the Pelicans might not even win 20 games this year. Seriously, never buying into this team ever again!

And that's that! The season is quickly winding down now and I have to say, I am ready for the playoffs. There's only so much you can take of March regular season basketball. The best teams are resting their guys for the playoffs and the worst teams are resting their guys trying to lose for lottery positions leaving a product that is totally lackluster. The playoffs is always a completely different story and I am ready for them to just start already. No Raptors on this list, obviously, but as always GO RAPTORS.