NBA Play-In Preview

 We are just going to ignore the fact that I hyped up Easton Lucas yesterday as a guy to believe in only to have him give up 8 runs in less than 5 innings last night in a game I attended! Quickly though, I am not sure if it was just a Monday night against the Braves with the roof closed thing, but the Rogers Center was pretty dead throughout the game last night. I will be going to a bunch more games this year so I'll have a better idea as the season goes on, but I was surprised at how quiet it was in there for sure. Hard to expect fans to go crazy when you get down 8-0 I guess. Anyway, the play-in tournament starts today with the Hawks at Magic then Grizzles at Warriors. I am kinda of the mind that the play-in tournament should be abolished at this point, but it isn't and so we're going to preview the games tonight today and I'll save tomorrow's games for tomorrow. 

Hawks at Magic

These are certainly two play-inish teams and almost polar opposite play styles. Starting with the Magic, defense is the name of their game. The Magic finished 41-41 despite shooting a league worst 31.8% on 3s this year. The addition of KCP was supposed to alleviate some of their shooting woes, but KCP has been inconsistent at best from deep this season and the Magic have really felt it. Their starting point guard and one of my favorite players in the NBA, Jalen Suggs, underwent knee surgery in March and is going to miss the rest of the season. This was the biggest blow for the Magic who's offense looks rudderless without their floor general out there. Suggs isn't the best shooter, but he's the best distributor on the team and that makes a huge difference in getting quality 3 point shots. Still the Magic are scrappy on defense and posted the second best defensive rating in the league only to the Thunder. Paolo Banchero has a good argument for being the best player in this game. Averaging 25.9/7.5/4.8 on the season, Paolo is a do it all forward that the Hawks don't really have any answers for. If the Magic are going to score, it probably goes through Paolo. Franz Wagner has had a similarly impactful season, with a lot of time even being spent as the number 1 option this year, Franz is averaging 24.2/5.7/4.7 on the year and should be every bit as terrifying as Paolo for Hawks fans. The thing is, despite how talented these two young wings are, the Magic are just so devoid of spacing that their offense ends up looking clunky anyway. They have been forced to play Wendell Carter Jr. at center over Goga Bitadze because Carter can at least look like he might shoot. In a play in game, if the Hawks can get hot from 3 then they should be able to have the fire power to outscore Orlando. 

For the Hawks, they've had a weird season with tons of injuries and roster movement, but they find themselves in their 4th straight play-in game. Trae Young is another guy who might have claim to be the best player in this game, it just depends on the Trae we get. Trae is one of the best playmakers in the NBA and he actually led the league in assists this year with 11.6 per game. While his efficiency as a scorer has been brutal this year, Trae's ability to get downhill and hit either a floater or throw a lob is second to nobody in the entire league. As usual the problem with Trae is you'll have to hide him somewhere on defense, luckily the Magic are forced to start someone in a long list of offensively inept guards. Dyson Daniels is my pick for most improved player this year and it's going to be really exciting to see if he can keep it up as a playmaker on defense in a playoff adjacent setting. With me mentioning Jalen Suggs being out for the Magic, I should mention that the Hawks second best player Jalen Johnson is also out for the rest of the season with a dislocated shoulder. This is a huge blow on both sides of the floor for the Hawks, though they seem to have found something in first overall pick Zacharie Risacher. 

Overall, I'm picking the Magic to win this one at home. I think that the Magic have enough size and length to make Trae's life difficult on offense and I think Franz and Paolo will provide just enough on offense to get by. I expect this to be a low scoring game and I don't think the Hawks are as capable of winning rock fights as the Magic.

Grizzlies at Warriors

The West is hilarious. I feel like either of these two teams would easily make the top 6 in the East, but one of them is going to have to battle it out for the right to play the Thunder without home court. Starting with the Warriors, this is a squad with championship equity and playoff experience up and down the roster. Steph Curry led the league in 3s per game with 4.4 and continues to be an absolute terror to guard on or off the ball. I loved the addition of Jimmy Butler on this team. It's a team with a short window anyway so may as well go all in on a guy like that. While Jimmy didn't have lights out stats in the regular season, he almost never does. I have seen with my own eyes Jimmy Butler carry a team with Caleb Martin as the #2 option to the finals, knocking off some giants along the way.  When the games matter, Jimmy can take it to another level, and now he has the best teammate he's ever had with Steph Curry. Draymond Green has been making a lot of noise for defensive player of the year, and for good reason too. He's still one of, if not the most versatile and vocal defender in the league and there's very few players I'd want more on a playoff team. Beyond that the Warriors have a bunch of athletic guys who can shoot a bit that make me confident they can find the right mix. Still though, despite all the positives in a playoff setting, the Warriors have had some head scratching losses this season and you can easily see them dropping a game many believe they shouldn't. They don't really have a good answer on the roster for a quick guard like Ja Morant, or a gigantic big like Zach Edey. For the Warriors, winning this one will be leaning heavily on their experience and star power, but I think that's a fair bet to make. 

For the Grizzlies, their season hit a bit of turmoil after the surprise firing of coach Taylor Jenkins 2 weeks before the playoffs. In a 7 game series, I'd take Steph and Jimmy over Ja Morant as best players in a series. In 1 game though, you can easily see Ja being the best player on the floor any given night. Like I said above, I'm not sure the Warriors have an answer for Ja that doesn't kill them on the offensive end of the floor. Besides Ja, the Grizzlies will be running out 2 other awesome players in Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane. Just like Ja, you can easily see either of those guys being the second best player on the floor in a single game setting, that's a lot to like if you're the Grizzlies. I would be remised if I didn't shout out Toronto native rookie Zach Edey on the Grizz who's had an awesome and fun season as a big man who does big man stuff well. Ultimately, while the Warriors may not have an answer for Ja, the Grizzlies don't have an answer for Steph or Jimmy. It's 1 game and both of these teams have a lot of depth that can swing any individual game. In a series I'd take the Warriors for sure, but in a single game you can't count out these Grizzlies. 

I'm taking the Warriors at home in this one. Like I said with Jimmy, I watched him carry Caleb Martin to the finals, now he has Steph Curry. I am cautiously optimistic about this potential Warriors run and want to see it off to a good start by securing the 7 seed tonight. 

And that's that! I admittedly only know about these teams through the very few games I've seen them but I look forward to getting more familiar with them all as the playoffs go on. More previews to come this week, the content is easy!