NBA West Playoffs Preview

 I love day Jays games during the work week, so easy to stealthily watch in the background at work and it makes the day go so much faster! The Jays are still looking great too. The bullpen, which I think I gave an F or D to in the preseason, has been a big strength of the team so far and Vladdy finally hit his first homerun of the season. Big bats are getting going, weather is warming up a bit, summer is coming! Anyway, NBA. I didn't watch either of the play-in games last night, but it looks like they were both over by halftime anyway. Congrats to the Heat and Mavericks who now get 1 more chance to get themselves into a series where they get swept. The Western conference playoffs are going to be awesome with multiple matchups that I could see going 7 games. The NBA for all the slack I've given it has gotten a lot more competitive at the top and it's made for much more fun first rounds than what we got historically. The West will be a bloodbath and I cannot wait. 

1 vs 8: Thunder vs TBD

This is just like my Cavs section on yesterday's post, I'm going to keep it short and sweet. I think the Thunder are the only team in the West that won't be tested too hard in the first round. I can't see either of Memphis or Dallas putting up much of a fight against the Thunder. They have so many guard defenders to throw at Ja and Bane, great rim protection in Hartenstein and Chet to neutralize Jaren Jackson Jr or Anthony Davis and a top level superstar in Shai that should be able to get whatever he wants against either of those backcourts. The Thunder won 68 games this season, just like the Cavs, if you win that many games and then can't take care of business against the 8 seed in 5 games or fewer, you deserve the talking heads ripping you to shreds. 

Prediction: Thunder in 4

2 vs 7: Rockets vs Warriors

Man the Rockets remind me a bit of the Lowry and DeRozan Raptors, not in their style of play but in the disrespect they receive. Playing great basketball all year and securing the 2 seed only to be seen as the underdog against a play-in team in the first round. The claims aren't invalid though, the Warriors are as formidable a 7 seed as you'll find filled with guys who have done it on the biggest stage for their entire career in a system that's gotten the job done time and time again. What the Rockets have going for them is athleticism and defense. Just like his brother Ausar, Amen Thompson is an absolute menace on defense. In their last game against the Warriors, Thompson helped hold Steph to just 3 points, and he's just one of the looks they have for him. We all saw first hand what Fred VanVleet can do chasing Steph around the perimeter in a playoff series. Dillon Brooks grinds as hard as anyone on defense, Tari Eason has length and speed to offer a different look as well. Where people doubt the Rockets is on offense. Although Sengun has been awesome, he's still not that true Superstar yet that you can just trust to get you a bucket in a tough situation. The Warriors have hall of famers in Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler who both reach another level of shot making in the playoffs, especially Jimmy. Jalen Green is going to be a big X factor on the Rockets who will be looking for shot makers to match Jimmy and Steph. As someone who watched a lot of Jalen Green this season for my fantasy team, I can tell you he's either scoring like one of the best scorers in the world, or he's a total negative on the floor and there's rarely an in between. If they get 3-4 games of lights out scorer Jalen Green, the Warriors might be in more trouble than people think. The final factor to watch is we have Draymond Green going up against a European big in Sengun, which typically has lead to violence in the past. That will be fun to see play out. Ultimately, I think the Rockets can win this series if they get some big leads early on in games. I think if the games are close, I trust the veterans on Golden State to perform in the clutch and bring it home. I don't think it's going to be a cakewalk though and the Rockets winning wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Prediction: Warriors in 6

3 vs 6: Lakers vs Timberwolves

See what I mean by the first round is getting really competitive? Either of these teams winning the conference wouldn't shock me, but it's a first round matchup and someone has to go home disappointed. The Lakers were the story of the season after trading Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic, and right at that moment I called them contenders. We all saw what Luka did to carry a Mavs team to the finals, and I think this Lakers squad has more talent than that Mavs team at every position except for center. Luckily for the Lakers, the Timberwolves don't really have a big threat on offense at the 5 with Rudy Gobert often being neutralized in the playoffs by 5 out lineups and Naz Reid being small enough to stick a Dorian Finney-Smith or Rui Hachimura on in a pinch. Austin Reaves has been amazing, especially since Luka arrived with many calling him now the best third option in the league. I've also learned as a Raptors fan that you should never bet against LeBron James in the playoffs. That's 3 perimeter guys that the Timberwolves are going to need to find answers for. I think Jaden McDaniels is a great answer for 1 of them. Nobody can stop Luka completely but McDaniels has a chance to make his life difficult on offense at least. Anthony Edwards is a good option to throw at another one of those guys, but with the amount he's going to have to work on offense, it's a big ask to have him try and lock up an elite creator on defense as well. After that, it gets dicey with a ton of matchups that the Lakers can exploit. We've seen Luka torch bigs like Rudy Gobert on switches in the past and he's going to be hunting that matchup all series long. LeBron has made a living getting switches on smaller defenders and guys like Mike Conley or Donte DiVincenzo are too important to the Wolves offense to leave off the floor in a series. All of this is sounding like the Wolves don't stand a chance, but they have Anthony Edwards. As much as I dislike the guy, he's shown that he is an amazing playoff performer and I don't think the Lakers have a guy that can slow him down without taking away from what they do on offense. I expect the Lakers to aggressively double Ant to try and make the other guys beat them, and I think that strategy should work just fine. I will believe Julius Randle can have a good playoff series when I see it. Jaden McDaniels can knock down shots, he can also go really cold, and the same can be said about DiVincenzo. I don't think the Lakers have a great option for Ant, but I don't think the Timberwolves have much of a threat beyond that and I think the Lakers have more guys to worry about. I think Ant makes noise and takes a game or two, but I'd be surprised if the Wolves come out of this series. 

Prediction: Lakers in 5

4 vs 5: Nuggets vs Clippers

Are the Clippers the nightmare matchup for any team in the West? As a Raptors fan, I know that Kawhi when healthy is arguably the best player in the world in the playoffs, and he's been playing at that level for the last 2 months. Beyond that the Clippers just have such a deep pool of guys that can do a lot of good things for them. James Harden has had a great year as a playmaker, Norman Powell has been an amazing scorer this season, Ivica Zubac does everything you want from a big man and Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr are great hustle defenders. That doesn't even mention Bogdan Bogdanovic who's an awesome shooter and Ben Simmons who has his obvious flaws but can be disruptive in his much smaller role. All of these guys without Kawhi Leonard probably are a scrappy 7 or 8 seed that are a tough out in the first round. All of these guys WITH a healthy Kawhi should be an absolute terror for anyone facing them. For this prediction, we're going to just go with Kawhi is going to be healthy the whole series, where's the fun otherwise. For the Nuggets, I don't really see them having a great matchup for Harden or Powell in their backcourt. Aaron Gordon is probably as good of a matchup for Kawhi as you can ask for, but I don't think anyone stops playoff Kawhi from getting his anyway. We've all seen Jamal Murray reach another level on offense when the lights get brighter, and if he can do that again the Nuggets can beat any team in the league, but on defense I just don't see him getting a ton of stops against the Clippers guards. Westbrook is a known playoff dropper for the Nuggets and I have big concerns for any team who trusts him in a big role like the Nuggets to this season. Why the Nuggets still have a chance is they have the best player in basketball Nikola Jokic. Jokic has averaged 27.7/12.3/7.5 in 80 playoff games in his career and he's yet to see a team that can slow him down let alone stop him for a 7 game series. Zubac might be one of the best equipped bigs in the league to give Jokic trouble, but I still don't think that will matter. Jokic is going to play like a superhuman and keep these games close, but to win the series he's going to need one of his teammates to show up with him. The Clippers have too much fire power to beat all on his own. 

Prediction: Clippers in 7

That's that! That felt gross! I hope the Nuggets do beat the Clippers I love Jokic and wanna see him win another one, I just don't think his team has the firepower this season unfortunately. Either way, we're in for a really fun playoffs starting this weekend!