Were We Too Hard on the Jays Front Office?

 Maybe it's just the early season excitement with nice weather around the corner, but I am really feeling the Jays this week! It helps that basketball is in it's get to the playoffs already stage with the Raptors in particular being a chore to watch right now. Baseball is a hard sport to talk about at a high frequency because even after 6 games, none of this is super indicative of what's to come. That being said, 6 games is all I've got to work with so take every single thing in this article with a grain of salt. Once game 162 hits it'll be fun to go back to this and see how silly the early season overreactions were.

HIMenez

Time will tell if Gimenez can keep this up, I can't stress enough that 6 games means basically nothing in a baseball season, but from what we've seen so far what a win for the Jays! When they announced the signing, like most casual fans, I was a hater. I was mad that they were going in again on a defense first poor offensive player just like they had done time and time again. What we all failed to give the front office credit for is Gimenez is a 26 year old 3x gold glover at a premium defensive position at second base while also being a guy who's had a very good offensive season just 2 years ago. The last couple seasons he's been average to below at the plate, but you buy now on the guy knowing his defense will be phenomenal and if he can find it again at the plate that's just a bonus. Had the front office not burned the goodwill of the fanbase, I think this signing would've been much more welcomed this offseason. Now that the team has taken the field for real games again, Andres Gimenez has endeared himself to the fanbase fully and I am all in on this guy. 

Through 6 games, the leader in OPS for the Jays is Tyler Heineman, a hilarious stat that only holds up because he had a dream come true of a first and only game. The next guy on that list is Gimenez with a 1.241 OPS so far including 3 HRs, 2 doubles and 5 RBIs. Buck Martinez brought up a great point on the broadcast that I admittedly never considered: Vlad Jr. had a tough time defensively last season and some of that can be attributed to having a rotating cast of guys at second base. With different guys at the position every day, it's hard for the first baseman to become comfortable with how his teammate will react to any given play. Gimenez definitely provides stability up the middle and I expect that chemistry to continue to grow with both Vlad and Bo. Obviously Gimenez isn't going to slug .818 for the entire season, if he did he'd be better than Mike Trout ever was, but if he can maintain even 75% of this then the Jays might've found themselves a long term all star second baseman. 

Not Extending Vlad, Actually a Win?

This will be the funniest one to come back to when he inevitably has a red hot 3 month stretch, but I've committed myself to being the Vlad Jr hater and so why not pile on to the slowish start he's having. Through 27 plate appearances, Vlad's been on base 8 times. In the new torpedo bat era, Vlad has 0 homeruns in 6 games. While his defense has been fine, it's at first base where teams generally stick their worst defender just to get a bat in the lineup. Most concerning of all, Vlad is tied for the team lead with 7 strikeouts on the season, just hasn't found his rhythm yet. Now I will say for sure, just like Gimenez isn't going to have a 1.200 OPS all season, Vlad isn't going to have a .600 OPS all season. He's definitely going to get hot at some point and we all have seen the highest heights that he can get to as a hitter when he's locked in. My problem is, those seasons seem to be the exceptions not the rule. In his first 6 seasons Vlad's OPS+, a great catchall stat that basically shows how above or below average you are as a hitter with 100 being average, has been: 106, 115, 167, 133, 116, 167. That's 3 seasons of just above average production, 2 of best hitter in baseball type production and 1 very good season. Basically what I am trying to say is in any given year you don't know what you're going to get from Vlad. He can either be an MVP candidate or just a decent hitter in your lineup, at the least useful defensive position. 

Vlad this offseason reportedly turned down a $500m extension. There's not a lot of context you can even provide for a contract that large, only 2 guys in history have ever signed for more than $500m: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. Before Soto signed this deal, he had put together 5 seasons with an OPS+ above 150, Vlad's had 2. Shohei Ohtani doesn't need me to tell everyone how good he is, but he's had 4 seasons above 150 OPS+ and that doesn't even account for the fact that he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ok so what about some other large contracts that were signed in previous seasons? Mookie Betts signed for $365m in 2020 after just 1 season above 150 OPS+, but by then he was a 4x gold glover in the outfield and provided much more value on the basepaths than Vlad, in fact he had more stolen bases in 2018 (30) than Vlad has his entire career (20). Aaron Judge signed a $360m deal in 2022 after hitting 62 HRs and having still 3 seasons above 150 OPS+. Manny Machado signed for $350m in 2019, never hitting the heights Vlad has at the plate but being touted as maybe the best defensive third baseman in baseball with 5 straight seasons of 30+ homeruns. You see where I am going with this? These guys who signed these contracts all showed they can be superstars consistently and all play more premium positions than Vlad Jr. The fans have been pissed that an extension hasn't been signed yet, but if Vlad wants more than $500m I say let him go see if he can get it. 

New Bo Approach? 

Ok this one isn't on theme with my front office apology tour, but I need to get the fans back on my side after spending 2 paragraphs bashing Vlad for a mediocre first 6 games. I have to say again, it is early, but I've been loving Bo's approach at the plate and I feel like it's different from any other season we've seen him have. Typically what you'd expect from Bo is to come out firing, he usually swings on the first pitch, second pitch, then chokes up and frequently hits the third pitch. It's a fun play style for sure, but overall in his healthy seasons despite hitting for average, he had a lower on base percentage than you'd expect. This season it looks like Bo is making a conscious effort to be more patient at the plate. The Jays moved him into the leadoff spot, a place I thought wasn't suited for him given his approach in previous seasons. This season through 27 plate appearances, Bo has reached base 12 times! Now I know a 12/27 stretch isn't convincing any real baseball knower of a change in approach, so let me get unconventional and try and convince you with what I saw in a strikeout last night. 

Yes, Bo struck out in this at bat, but I think in encapsulated his new approach perfectly. Late in the game last night, the Nationals reliever Jorge Lopez had just come off walking George Springer on a questionable call by the home plate umpire. You could tell Lopez was rattled when facing the next batter and his catcher had to come to the mound and calm him down. When it was Bo's turn to hit, he recognized that Lopez was struggling to maintain his composure and used that to his advantage. Bo did something I don't think I've ever seen him do before. The first pitch was a fastball that barely caught the inside corner, Bo took the pitch. Second pitch Bo laid off a slider outside. Third pitch Bo took another fastball this time on the outside corner, then the 4th pitch he laid off a sinker that was high and inside. The 5th pitch having to protect the plate Bo swung and missed on a nasty slider to strike out. Bo took 4 straight pitches in this at bat, understanding the emotions of the guy he was facing and recognizing the benefits of being patient in that moment. The result was a strikeout, but I don't think I've ever seen Bo take 4 straight pitches before and to me it's indicative of a new mindset at the plate. I've loved what I've seen so far and I hiope he keeps it up. 

And that's that! Baseball is a long season and by July none of this stuff will be memorable, but it's new, it's fun and I am having a good time so let the overreactions fly! Go Blue Jays!