NBA Playoffs: Round 2 Preview

 There's really just no shortage of sports on right now, it's overwhelming. The 2 game 7s this weekend in the NBA were slightly disappointing with both of them ending in lopsided scores, although the Rockets and Warriors game was closer than the final score makes it look and the Clippers Nuggets was more lopsided than the final score makes it look. Either way, the second round is now set and underway and I've got some predictions to make! Before I get into that, the Leafs and Panthers start their round 2 series today, I've legitimately got Leafs in 5 because I know nothing about the NHL so I can make bold picks without fear since nobody can claim I'm supposed to know better. Anyway, lets talk ball, here I am supposed to know better. 

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 

I think this is going to be the series to watch in the Eastern conference, and with 10pm start times for Western Conference games, that usually means it's the series to watch for me. After eliminating the Bucks in round 1, I took a liking to the Pacers and their cocky attitude. They've got a really fun superstar in Tyrese Haliburton, a former Raptor's great in Pascal Siakam and a Canadian playoff riser in Andrew Nembhard, all ingredients for a team that I will route for. They are up against a tall task with the Cavaliers who both destroyed the regular season and blew through the Miami Heat in round 1. The Cavs were deemed world beaters all year and they're going to come into this series as the favorites, probably for good reason. Darius Garland already missed the first game with a toe injury, and that proved to be a big blow with Cleveland not being able to match up against the Pacers scoring on a hot shooting night. 1 game aside though, I think Garland will return at some point, probably even for game 2, and we'll see what these two teams have to offer at full strength. The Cavs have maybe the best duo possible for slowing down Pascal Siakam's scoring efforts. Evan Mobley is both faster and longer than Siakam negating all of P's advantages. Jarrett Allen is an elite rim protector and is mobile himself as well to offer another look and to help out as a help defender. The Cavs won a ton of games for a reason, along with those two menacing defenders down low, they have the dynamic backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell to go along with just a ton of guys who can shoot that they mix and match. We already saw in game 1 that the Pacers probably don't have a good answer for Mitchell getting downhill, he was getting literally whatever he wanted in the second half and that's going to be a problem all series. 

The thing is though, even with Garland, I don't trust the Cavs backcourt to be able to defend Haliburton, and as crazy as it sounds, Nembhard too. Andrew Nembhard is a different player in the playoffs. In the regular season Nembhard averaged 10ppg on 54.5% true shooting. In the playoffs he's averaging 16.3ppg on 66.8% true shooting while playing awesome hard nosed defense. Nembhard isn't going to take over games or anything, but he's showing he can be an elite role player in the post season, and with a creator like Haliburton that's exactly what you need. The Pacers were 3-1 against the Cavs in the regular season. While I usually hate using regular season records to project the playoffs, I do think it shows the Pacers are a particularly difficult matchup for the Cavs. The Pacers can play 5 out the entire game with Myles Turner, negating the advantage the Cavs have protecting the paint. While the Cavs are deeper, I think they play a lot of guys that you can just dare to shoot. The Pacers are probably thrilled to let Evan Mobley kill them from deep, maybe he will, but I'd make that gamble if I'm the Pacers. The Cavs dropped game 1 at home, while missing Darius Garland. As I mentioned, Garland definitely would've helped try to keep up with the offensive explosion of the Pacers, but I think he also takes away from their defense in the backcourt which is going to be extra important this series against Haliburton. I think the Pacers have the exact type of team that should give Cleveland trouble and I just straight up like them, so I am leaning Pacers in an upset. I posted this pick before the game yesterday and game 1 isn't changing anything. The Cavs are awesome and should win a couple of these, but I have the Pacers winning at home in 6. 

Prediction: Pacers in 6

New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics

This is the prove it series for the Knicks. They made some big swings this off season to load up, specifically to match up against the giants of the East, the Celtics being the giantest. I took a particular interest in hating the Pistons, which drove me to watching a lot of their series and I have to say, the Knicks did not look impressive. Jalen Brunson was amazing, as he typically is in the playoffs averaging 31.5ppg for the series and hitting a devastating game winner in Detroit to close it out. The Pistons put Ausaur Thompson on him for most of the series, as good of a defender as he'll see against anyone, and Brunson still got his seemingly at will. The problem is, the Knicks don't seem to play much as a team. Throughout the series against the Pistons they were surviving on just tossing the ball to Brunson or KAT and telling them to go to work. They'd crash the glass for offensive rebounds, but mostly it was just those two guys creating with everyone else standing still. This was enough to get by a young Pistons team, but the Celtics are a different animal. 

The Cs starting lineup is all guys who can create their own shot, pass, hit a 3 and score in the paint. They don't have a traditional vertical threat like the Knicks faced in Duren, but Porzingis offers a different set of problems for KAT having to run around on the perimeter. Where the Pistons had 1 awesome option to throw at Brunson, the Celtics have 3-4 with Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum all being well equipped to handle him. The Celtics do get trigger happy from 3 and it can lead to games where they lose just due to the variance of the shot, but at the same time they're awesome at shooting and it's hard to see them being cold for 4/7 games. The Knicks do have the guys to throw at Tatum and Brown with OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, but just like Brunson, you aren't going to fully stop those guys no matter who you throw at them. The Celtics are probably the championship favorites this season, and they should be. There's no weaknesses defensively in the Celtics lineup and therefore in my mind there's no matchup that should be particularly difficult for them. I think Brunson is going to be electric enough to steal a game, maybe 2 in this series, but I don't trust the scheme or the rest of his team to get it done over 7 games. I unfortunately have to pick the Celtics here. 

Prediction: Celtics in 5

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

If the Pacers are my team in the East, the Thunder are my team in the West. I have to say, I spent 0 time watching the Thunder series against the Grizzlies. This team is so stacked, no 8 seed was going to come in and make any kind of noise against them, it wasn't worth the opportunity cost of watching the other awesome games. This series is completely different and I couldn't be more excited for the showdown between the 2 MVP favorites. As a Canadian basketball fan as well, it's also a showdown between probably the best 2 Canadians in the world with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matching up against Jamal Murray. All season long the Thunder have been an absolute terror defensively. Every Thunder game I've seen I've likened them to a pack of piranhas with Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams all being scrappy defenders who get up into you. They have tons of guys with long limbs that get their hands in passing lanes and force turnovers, where they then eat in transition. Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren have been an awesome rim protector duo who take away nothing on the offensive side of the ball just adding to the terror that the Thunder already had with their perimeter defense. Jalen Williams is a tough shot maker who'd be the centerpiece prospect on almost any team in the league but gets to play second option on this Thunder squad who has Shai. And they do have Shai. The reason the Thunder won 68 games this season instead of ~50 like the Rockets is they have the likely MVP of the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai is straight up the best scorer in basketball right now and he does it in such an aesthetically pleasing way. Shai had 49 games where he scored 30 or more points this season, 49!! That's consistency you just rarely see in the NBA. Not that the Thunder are in a bunch of close games, but when they are Shai is a stone cold killer in the 4th and can go toe to toe with literally anyone. This was the best team in basketball through the regular season for a reason, they're an awesome team without Shai, and Shai is an MVP candidate. 

The Nuggets may not have as much talent on paper as the Thunder, especially defensively, but they have the best player in the series, and the world in Nikola Jokic. Yes, even though Shai is probably winning the MVP, Jokic is still a better player in the way he impacts offense throughout the course of the game. This is a big Hartenstein series, he's the only one on the Thunder with the girth and length to somewhat deal with Jokic, but honestly he just went up against Zubac, who's probably the best built for defending him in the league, and put up 24.1/11.6/10.1. You can't stop Jokic, it's probably stupid to even think about trying, where I think the Thunder have the advantage is they're perfectly equipped to handle everyone else on the Nuggets. Jamal Murray is a famous playoff riser and he did it again against the Clippers hitting tough shots and looking like a superstar beside Jokic. He now has to deal with Lu Dort and Alex Caruso getting into him and frustrating him all series. Murray might still be able to get his, but it's going to be super difficult. Russell Westbrook was the unlikely hero of the first round for the Nuggets, but it's really hard to trust him consistently in the playoffs. I've said before, if Russell Westbrook is playing, you're going to notice it for better or for worse. The Nuggets always have a chance in any series because they have Nikola Jokic, this series is no different. Ultimately though I think the Thunder can stay fresher with the depth of young scrappy defenders to go along side their own superstar in Shai vs a Nuggets team that has 6 maybe 7 playable guys. The Thunder have the rest advantage too having swept the Grizzlies while the Nuggets just finished game 7 on Saturday and are already playing again tonight. I lean Thunder here, but think the Nuggets will make it closer than people think. 

Prediction: Thunder in 6

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Ugh I hate the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards, but man are they fun. I really thought in the last series that they'd struggle mightily against Luka and LeBron, so much so that I picked the Lakers in 5! That was obviously a bad call. Not only did Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle straight up outplay Luka and LeBron, the Timberwolves size proved too much for the Lakers to handle without a true big and the series was over quickly. As much as I hate to admit it, Anthony Edwards is just a big game player. He consistently turns it up for key matchups or the playoffs and has been able to elevate his game now over a large sample size to the point where it's undeniable. In a series with Luka Doncic and LeBron James, he was the best player in the series and I think he's got a good shot of being that again here. Julius Randle has had his playoff woes in the past, but he came to play against the Lakers and delivered exactly what you need from a second option. Rudy Gobert has long been a 0 on offense in the playoffs, but even he was using his size to get offensive boards and put backs against a much smaller Lakers team while still being the best rim protector in the playoffs right now. Even Jaden McDaniels has thrived in his role picking his spots well on offense and providing amazing perimeter defense. The Wolves are figuring it out and they have the 2 way players to matchup against almost anyone. 

On the Warriors side, this team still has Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler and that's enough to give you a chance in any series. Steph has seen every type of defender on the planet and has cooked them all. An underrated aspect of Steph's game is with him running around the perimeter, it takes a ton out of whoever defends him throughout the series. I expect McDaniels will get the Steph assignment and Ant will handle the Jimmy assignment which should keep each of them fresh enough for their respective roles on offense. Draymond Green is a menace and I expect them to use him in a way that makes Julius Randle's life very difficult. I'd be surprised if Randle goes off in the same way against the Warriors as he did against the Lakers. That's the only matchup I expect to be difficult though. The Warriors have the same weaknesses as the Lakers. In game 7 against the Rockets, a series they were getting destroyed on the glass by Steven Adams and Sengun, the Warriors started Steph Curry, Brandon Podzemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. We've all seen Dray at the 5 can work, but they're starting 3 guards and a SF against a big giant team in Minnesota and I think that's asking for trouble. Pair that with the fact that Ant can reach superstar heights when the lights get bright and I think it's a recipe for a quick Wolves series. Who knows though, the Warriors unleashed Kevon Loony and that solved the Steven Adams problem in game 7, feels like they'll need the series of Loony's life to deal with the Timberwolves size though and that's a tough thing to bet on. I lean Wolves, damn it. 

Prediction: Timberwolves in 5

And that's that! Big basketball post before I watch hockey tonight! Go Leafs Go!!