Trade for Giannis?

 It's time for me to finally jump on the Giannis trade speculation bandwagon. I'm not sure how much we should read into reports about mutual interest between the Raptors and Giannis. I am certain the Raptors have interest, this is a guy Masai has been chasing for a decade now, but Giannis' interest is a different story. Are the Raptors really the best situation for him to go to if he's indeed planning on leaving the Bucks? Would the Raptors even be contenders if they gut their core for Giannis? Am I being too sentimental about a 30 win team? We will cover all the angles here today in the last day off of basketball before the finals start tomorrow. 

The Dream Package

Ok lets start out with the super unrealistic package the Raptors could send out for Giannis. This is a package the Bucks likely say no to right away. The only way something like this goes through is if Giannis demands a trade specifically to Toronto and sabotages any attempt at sending him elsewhere. The package: 

Bucks Receive: RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, all the picks

Raptors Receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo 

The only way the money would work in a trade that doesn't involve Scottie, IQ or BI is if you include RJ and Jakob Poeltl. This leaves the Raptors thin at center, but if you can swing a deal like this you just do it and worry about finding a center later. Does this trade make the Raptors a contender next season? Maybe on the fringes. People say the fit between Scottie and Giannis is weird, but I think in a lineup with Scottie at the 4 and Giannis at the 5 they each offer enough playmaking and defense that it can work. BI would be in the Middleton role at the 3, they keep Ja'Kobe and Gradey to play the 2 and IQ is the shooter playing the 1. I think at first glance this team is better than the one the Bucks rolled out last season. You'd role with Mogbo, Shead, Agbaji, Battle, Gradey/Jakobe off the bench which is young but decent and again better than what the Bucks had. The only issue I'd have with this team is that it lacks size. Though if you keep enough of your assets like this trade suggests, you can work on another deal later to bring in a center. I don't think the Raptors are title favorites even if they pull off this dream scenario, but they will be contenders and I don't think there will be a single person in the fanbase who'd be mad about this. 

The More Realistic Package

Ok now its time to step out of fairytale land and put the real chips in. This is the package I think the Bucks have to take a look at. I heard it said on a podcast, and it's true, if RJ Barrett is the centerpiece he legitimately would be the Bucks best young prospect, which is to say the state of the Bucks is pretty bleak. With that in mind, offering a blue chip young prospect has to open some eyes and in this package we will do just that: 

Bucks Receive: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, all the picks

Raptors Receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo 

This one would hurt a bit, but honestly if you squint you're still left with a competitive team around Giannis. Your starting lineup would be IQ, Ja'Kobe, BI, Giannis and Poeltl which I'd say is marginally better than the Bucks starting lineup this past season. Your bench is pretty gutted but you still have Jamal Shead, Ochai Agbaji, Jonathan Mogbo and Jamison Battle who you can hope for improvements on. The biggest concern I'd have in a trade like this is you're really banking on Brandon Ingram's health, which has been a tough bet to make throughout his career. BI would be the only perimeter creator on the team and if he got hurt things would be looking bleak there pretty quickly. The Raptors would also be going all in to win now and abandoning their build around Scottie plans. I think this team would have a shot in the East for sure, but I wouldn't call them favorites. Unfortunately in both of these trades RJ Barrett is the big salary match piece. That would make me sad but I would think you'd prioritize Quickley's shooting with Giannis taking over RJ's barrel to the rim role. I don't despise this, it's giving up your entire future but it'd instantly make the team relevant again. You'd really have to think about it, but I'm still on team...

Just Run it Back

This is boring, I know, but seriously I think it's just not the time to be big game hunting. Even in the most unrealistic best case scenario deal up top the Raptors won't be title favorites, and they'll still likely need to trade all their picks forgoing a lot of their future flexibility. The last time the Raptors swung big for a top 5 player was Kawhi. At that time they had a deep team that had made 5 straight playoff runs as a higher seed in the east. They had home grown talent that was coming into its own, a budding star in Pascal Siakam, an all star point guard in Kyle Lowry and a star in DeRozan that they tried and failed with multiple times to offer in the trade package. This Raptors team is coming off of a second straight season out of the playoffs, it's not as though they're a simple superstar away from contention. 

I am optimistic about what the team is building right now. The team last year had contributions from 4 rookies. I'd be shocked if one or multiple of Shead, Mogbo, Battle or Walter doesn't improve their game over the offseason. Immanuel Quickley missed essentially the entire first half of the season last year during the toughest part of the Raptors' schedule. By the time he came back the Raptors were aggressively tanking games. The 9th pick in this years' draft may be disappointing but I am confident that this front office will find a difference maker in that slot that can maybe contribute next season. Finally, we haven't even seen Brandon Ingram play a game in a Raps jersey yet. I think he's the exact type of player they needed to help close games and I expect him to add a healthy amount to the teams' win total next year. This team is young, has a lot of good players and is just starting to rebuild its depth that it lost after the 2019 championship year. I say continue to build on that and get back to a place where the team is expected to be in the playoffs every season. Once that happens, they'll be in a similar position to the summer of 2018 when they swung the Kawhi trade. Maybe I am being too sentimental about a 30 win team, I just don't think selling your entire future to turn it into a 50 win team is worth it when you might have a 45 win team waiting for you without making any moves. 

And those are my thoughts on a Giannis trade. If it actually happens sign me up for an Antetokounmpo jersey as soon as they start selling, but I am not holding my breath. I may be one of the only people happy with running it back next year, but I think the team will show everyone I'm right. If not, they weren't good enough even with Giannis anyway.