Jays Trade Deadline Reaction (Late)

 Sorry loyal readers, bit of a hiatus from me! I took Thursday off due to lack of feeling it, then it was Friday, then it was the long weekend and so it ballooned into a 5 day break. With that in mind, I have the trade deadline to react to and I think the Jays did pretty well! I thought about doing a couple other baseball sections in here but I am pretty busy at work today along with the fact that I should save them and parcel them out throughout the week. Anyway, here's how I thought about the Jays deadline: 

Bieber Fever!

This one came out of left field! Early in the day on Thursday the Jays traded prospect Cal Stephen to the Guardians for Shane Bieber. Having only just gotten back into baseball pretty recently, I initially reacted to the name and was hyped! I remember this guy was lights out when I was watching every game a few years ago, and the headlines reminded me that he won the Cy Young award in 2020. Then upon doing a basic amount of research I was reminded that he had Tommy John surgery at the start of last season that's expected to sideline him until mid-way through August. Then I remembered that it is August! What a whiplash! All seriousness, this was a really good buy low from the Jays on a guy that wasn't on anyone's radar. In 134 career starts Shane Bieber has an ERA of 3.22, a WHIP of 1.11 and a SO/9 of 10.9. When he's healthy this is legitimately one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Since he was injured, it cost the Jays Cal Stephen, the #5 prospect in the Jays system. I won't pretend like I'm keeping tabs on prospects, but this wasn't a name the fans online were particularly worried about losing at the deadline. All around a good bit of business for the Jays!

There are a couple reasons why the price got so low on a guy with ace upside: the first is of course his injury. Bieber is scheduled to make another rehab start and potentially 1 more after that before coming back to the MLB. He has looked good in his starts so far, but there's really no telling if the guy that gets called up will be the guy people are expecting. Generally it takes a few months to find yourself after a major surgery like that, and the Jays don't have that luxury in the middle of a division title race. The second is his contract. Shane Bieber has a $16m player option for next season, which opens up multiple scenarios. If Bieber comes back and is an ace, he definitely declines that option and hits free agency where he could sign anywhere. If Bieber comes back and struggles, he probably opts into his contract giving the Jays a chance to continue his rehab and maybe get a full season of the real Shane Bieber next year. It's a bit of a risk, but in the worst case scenario that he leaves it probably means that he was amazing for the home stretch of the season, which I would not complain about at all. With the prices some teams paid for pitching help at this deadline, the Shane Bieber acquisition was the perfect low risk high reward bet the Jays had to take and I'm glad they did it. 

Twins Trade Everybody

Sorry Twins fans, as if any of you are reading this lol. The Twins went on a firesale at the deadline and the Jays were benefactors! The biggest get here was righty reliever Louis Varland. Varland doesn't have the most extensive track record, he's only 27 and this is only his 4th season in the league. He struggled in his first 3 seasons after being used as a starter and being called up and down. This season he started the year in the bullpen and has been lights out. He carries a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings with the Twins. Baseball Savant has him with one of the best fastballs in baseball and although he doesn't strikeout a ton of guys, he generates groundballs and weak contact at an elite level and doesn't walk guys a ton. This isn't a proven name over the long term, but it's a guy with great stuff who's pitching really well this season and the cost was Alan Rhoden, a fine AAAA type player who was seeing his opportunities diminish, and Kendry Rojas, a LHP in their system that wasn't on my radar at all. If all goes well, this was a cheap price to pay for a leverage arm in the bullpen. Varland's under team control until after the 2027 season leaving the Jays with all the upside should he develop into a starter again, and if not they have a pretty darn good reliever for the next 3 seasons. 

Along with Varland came Ty France. France is mostly a first baseman but he's played at second and third before. He's been around the league and has mostly been an average hitter with a good glove. After the Jays traded Will Wagner it was clear they were making room for someone, and it looks like France will be the replacement on the bench. This pretty much just gives Vladdy some days as the DH without killing the lineup too much. He's a marginally better player than Wagner who was filling that role on the Jays previously. Nothing to be mad about here but nothing to get overly excited about either, this is a solid bench addition for the Jays. 

Overall Reaction

I talked last week about Seranthony Dominguez, another low cost reliever that can now slide into leverage situations for the Jays. With him, Bieber and Varland, the Jays added potentially 3 impactful pitchers without giving up a top 4 prospect in their system, good work if you ask me! The Jays are already a really good team. I talked leading up to the deadline about how adding a bat might be tough considering how well everyone's hitting right now. They definitely needed pitching particularly in the bullpen, Dominguez and Varland are definite upgrades over what they had and should slide right into higher leverage roles for the rest of the season. Bieber is the ultimate wild card here, if he can be himself then the Jays just got an ace for almost nothing which would be insane. It'd cause other problems like who in the rotation goes to the bullpen, but those are the types of problems you want to have on your team. Overall I was really happy with the additions, nothing too splashy, but also nothing too expensive. The team is better than it was a week ago, and the team a week ago was first in the MLB. Go Jays!